Welcome back to part 2 of this series. Earlier this week I looked at the biggest over performing goalies, and now it is time to look at the other end of things. Once again we will be using Corsica’s 5v5 goalie stats to judge this. Sv% vs expected Sv%, and goals saved above average (GSAA). We are only looking at goalies with at least 400 minutes of TOI. This is to get rid of crazy outliers. With this all being said let’s jump right into it!
3. Matt Murray
The 2-time cup winner has had a rough start to the season. Posting just a .902 Sv% and ranking 27/28 in GSAA with a -6.45. Now some of this has been due to the poor defensive play by Pittsburgh, and the rough schedule. The Pens are tied for the most back to backs in the league this season. Below is the Pens 5v5 shots against this season, (from hockeyviz) and as you can see they have done a terrible job defending the slot. This is a big reason for Murray’s drop in Sv% from .934 to the .902 it currently sits at. However, he still has not been playing as well as he was last year. He played well above his expected Sv% last year which was a .918. This gave him an outstanding 18.15 GSAA, which was 3rd in the league behind only Sergei Bobrovsky and Cam Talbot. This year he has fallen to a -5.91, not something he wants to keep.
The other thing to take into consideration is how much he has had to play. We mentioned that the Pens have the most back to backs in the league. Well the backup position behind Murray has been a revolving door. Antti Niemi started the year and was absolute trash, they then had Casey DeSmith up for a game who was not much better. They now have Tristan Jarry up, who is 1 year younger than Murray at 22. This all means that the coaches have not had much trust in the backup leading Murray to already have played 16 games. His work load has been huge this year and fatigue may be a reason he has struggled. Overall, I don’t see why the 2-time cup winner will keep playing like this. I think he’ll find his game again and bounce back, but so far it is no secret he has been struggling.
Craig Anderson has been very poor so far this year. Sitting at a .904 Sv% with a .926XSv%, Anderson just hasn’t been the goalie he’s known to be. Part of this could be due to age as Andy is 36 years old. He is sitting at a -5.77 GSAA this year, a huge drop from his 11.73 last year. Anderson is known to be streaky as the year prior to that he had a -4.9 GSAA, and the a positive one again 3 years ago. However this seems different, the biggest debate over this year and last is all about the Senators’ system. As most people know Guy Boucher likes to play the 1-3-1 trap. This system looks terrible when it comes to Corsi, however has been effective thus far.
The big debate is about whether it’s luck and is due for regression, or if the Senators have defied what we know about Corsi and advanced stats. What really isn’t up for debate is how little HD chances they give up. I wrote about it here, but the Sens have given up the least HD Corsi in the league. Anderson’s struggles have come at those few HD chances he faces. He has a .674HDSv%, which puts him dead last in the entire league, and way lower than his .846 last year. This is the biggest reason Andy is doing so poorly. That and he also ranks 26th however in Medium danger Sv%. Low danger chances he has been lights out stopping 99.2% (.992) of shots which ranks him 3rd. Overall Andy needs to be better, and he needs to start stopping more medium and high danger chances. His overall sub .900 Sv% just will not cut it, and the Sens are lucky to be doing so well with such poor starting goaltending.
1. Carey Price
By far the biggest disappointment, and maybe worry to Habs fans on the year. Price has been brutal, and nothing like the Price we are used to. Even in his “off year” last year he had a 14.9GSAA which was 4th in the league. This year is a different story. Price currently has a -9.5GSAA, last in the entire league. He is also at a league worst .881 Sv% when it is expected to be .921. That is just brutal no matter how you slice it, and sure the D corps in front of him is not pretty. However, Price has still been terrible, he is injured right now and it is possible that affected him earlier too, but he claims it didn’t. Price currently has a .829 Medium danger Sv%, and a .727HDSv%. Worst and 3rd worst in the league respectively. I am somewhat at a loss for words at all of this to be honest.
Price is one of the best goalies of our generation, and maybe even of all time. He has looked like a Jr A goalie out there. Habs fans shouldn’t worry just yet about his play. There is really no reason for him to not at least somewhat bounce back, but they should be worried about that massive contract extension about to kick in. That is not going to look pretty in 4-5 years. For this season though the Habs just have to pray Price gets healthy and back to his normal self, because with the numbers he is putting up right now the Habs will be staying in the basement all year.
That’s the list of my top 3 under performers this season. All 3 of these guys should definitely improve at least a little, if not a lot before the season is over. However, they need to take it one game at a time to get back on track. What do you think? Do you agree? If not let me know who your 3 most disappointing goalies so far this season have been!